By the Waymore Shipping Operations Team | Last updated: December 8, 2026 | 6 min read

The 12-Month Freight Season Calendar: Low vs Peak Pricing

Freight from China follows a predictable 12-month rhythm: rates bottom out in March–April, May–early June and November, and peak in July–October plus a short pre-Chinese New Year rush in December–January. Plan your purchase orders around this calendar and you can routinely save a quarter or more on the same lane.

Seasonality matters more than most new importers realize. Our Shanghai desk has watched the same Ningbo–LA 40HC route quote one number in May and nearly double by September — same carrier, same service, purely a calendar effect. Below is the calendar we use internally when advising clients on booking windows.

What Is the Month-by-Month Freight Season Calendar?

Reading the calendar correctly

Three nuances the table cannot show. First, the transitions are gradual — rates start climbing in mid-June, not on July 1, so a booking confirmed in late June often catches pre-peak pricing. Second, the CNY effect depends on the lunar calendar: Chinese New Year falls between January 21 and February 20, so the exact panic window shifts each year. Third, Golden Week in early October behaves like a mini-CNY: factories stop, vessels blank sail, and cargo pushed into late October competes with the post-holiday backlog. Build these shifts into your purchase-order schedule rather than trusting fixed month boundaries.

How big are the swings?

Directionally, transpacific spot rates have historically moved 50–150% between the spring low and the August–September high in strong-demand years; Asia–Europe swings are typically milder at 30–60%. You can follow the weekly movement on the Shanghai Shipping Exchange's SCFI index or the Freightos Baltic Index — both are free and update weekly.

When Should You Book for the Cheapest Freight?

Three practical rules from our operations team:

• Ship in the dips. If your inventory plan allows any flexibility, target March–April or November sailings. This is when forwarders have allocated space to fill and rates are softest.
• In peak, book early and fix the rate. July–September bookings should be confirmed 3–4 weeks before cut-off with a fixed rate, or a week-to-week spot move can erase your product margin. Our guide to peak season booking walks through the timeline.
• Never let cargo slip into the pre-CNY rush unplanned. December–January capacity disappears fast once factories push pre-holiday stock; start planning with our guide on how to ship before Chinese New Year.

One caveat: seasonal patterns set the baseline, but disruptions — port congestion, canal rerouting, blank sailings — can override the calendar for weeks. Treat the table as your default plan and re-check rates when your shipment nears its booking window.

A worked planning example

Suppose you buy holiday decorations that must reach a US warehouse by early November. Working backwards: two weeks for inland delivery and customs after discharge, 15 days on the water, and a week of origin buffer before cut-off — you need cargo on a vessel by mid-September. That is peak season, so the smart move is contracting the rate in July rather than buying spot in September. The same shipment planned a month earlier, sailing in mid-August, would still face peak pricing but with more space options. An importer of garden tools with no seasonal deadline, by contrast, simply targets an April or November sailing and books whenever convenient. The calendar is not a rule — it is a question to ask before every purchase order: does this cargo have deadline pressure or not?

Frequently Asked Questions

What months are low season for shipping from China?

January to early February, late February to early April after CNY, May to early June, and late October to November. During these windows carriers discount space and forwarder quotes drop accordingly.

When is peak season on the transpacific and Europe lanes?

Roughly July to October, driven by back-to-school, Black Friday and Christmas inventory, with surcharges and rollovers common. A second, shorter spike hits December to early January ahead of Chinese New Year factory shutdowns.

How much do freight rates rise in peak season?

Historically 50–150% on transpacific spot between spring low and autumn high in strong years; Asia–Europe often 30–60%. Exact magnitude depends on capacity, rerouting and demand — track it weekly via the SCFI or FBX indexes.

When should I book to get the cheapest freight from China?

Book within the low-season windows — March–April, May–early June, November — and secure longer rate validity. If you must ship in peak, book 3–4 weeks before the vessel and lock a fixed rate.